Romney in Davenport, Iowa (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
DAVENPORT, Iowa--When Mitt Romney returned to this state on Tuesday
for the final push before next week's presidential caucuses, he began
by telling more than 300 people at a hotel here about a speech Barack
Obama delivered in the same city four years ago this week.
"He promised to bring people together. He promised to change the
broken system in Washington. He promised to do away with gridlock. He
promised to repair the nation," Romney said. "Well, Mr. President … You
have failed to deliver on the promises you made here in Davenport."
Romney did not mention any of his Republican rivals as he looked past
the Republican primaries and caucuses and toward the November general
election. But if Romney wants to quickly clear the Republican field so
that he can focus on a direct challenge of President Obama, he must
first deliver on some of the promise that he, too, demonstrated four
years ago in Iowa.
Perhaps the biggest unknown heading into Tuesday's caucuses is
whether Romney can win here merely by activating the organization he
built in Iowa for his 2008 presidential campaign. With key voting blocs,
like social conservatives, divided among several other candidates, some
Republicans in the state say Romney has a real possibility of pulling
off a surprise win on Jan. 3.
"It's a wild card," Craig Robinson, a former political director of
the Iowa Republican Party, told Yahoo News. "He has a base of support
from 2008, but nobody really knows what these people will do."
For months, Romney has been coy about how much money and effort he
would invest in Iowa—and with good reason. Four years ago, he spent tens
of millions of dollars to win the state—hiring dozens of consultants
and flooding the TV and radio airwaves with campaign ads. Romney
criss-crossed the state in what the campaign called the "Mittmobile,"
visiting each of the state's 99 counties at least once.
"By the end, there wasn't anybody who didn't know who he was," Renee
Schulte, a state representative who ran Romney's organization in Linn
County in 2008 and is now a co-chairwoman of his 2012 campaign in Iowa,
told Yahoo News.
But it didn't help. The ex-governor came in a disappointing second
place to Mike Huckabee, an insurgent candidate who had spent virtually
nothing compared to Romney. The loss contributed to Romney's speedy
collapse in the polls in other early voting states like New Hampshire,
South Carolina and Florida.
Yet, while Romney lost to Huckabee in 2008 by 10 points, more than 30,000 people supported
his candidacy, and he won several counties by large margins in eastern
and western Iowa. In a divided field with lower voter turnout expected,
30,000 votes might be enough to win Iowa in 2012.
"Four years ago, he started out with a name recognition of 3 percent,
and this time, around, we now have a foundation to work with," Schulte
told Yahoo.
Still, Romney has kept his distance.
Tuesday's visit was just his eighth trip to Iowa since he formally
announced his 2012 campaign. In 2008, he had at least five campaign
headquarters all over the state. This time, Romney has just one office,
located in an old Blockbuster video store in Des Moines. He has just
four paid staffers and one political consultant in the state, according
to his campaign—one of the smallest footprints of any of the 2012
contenders.
For his few visits to the state in recent months, Romney has zeroed
in on the areas where he did well last time around. On Tuesday, he
kicked off a four-day bus tour of the state in Scott County, where he
won by almost 10 points in 2008. On Wednesday, he's set to make three
more stops in eastern Iowa, including events in Clinton County, where he
won in 2008 by 11 points, and Johnson County (9 points).
At the same time, his campaign has quietly built a volunteer network
using its lists of the supporters Romney had in 2008. The campaign has
also organized conference calls to connect Romney with the voters who
backed his presidential bid four years ago. And several of his key
supporters from 2008 who haven't yet committed to a candidate in 2012
recently received a Christmas card from Romney, featuring a photo of him
posing with his family.
"We're doing things a lot more conventionally this time," Connie
Schmett, a longtime Republican activist in Iowa who is heading up
Romney's organizing efforts in Polk County, told Yahoo News. "We're
really focusing on people knocking on doors and talking to their
neighbors."
That's not to say Romney isn't redeploying some of the strategy and tactics he used in 2008. In recent weeks, his campaign has spent more than $1.1 million on TV ads in Iowa,
which doesn't include the nearly $3 million a super PAC supporting his
2012 bid has spent in the state. On Wednesday, Romney will launch more
ads—a $150,000 buy in the Quad Cities.
Romney's consistent position at or near the top of the polls in
Iowa has prompted grumbling from candidates who have spent more time in
the state. On Tuesday, Rick Santorum urged voters to "stick it to"
candidates who treat Iowa as a "flyover state."
But Schulte argues that Romney's lack of retail politicking in the
state won't hurt him on caucus night—in part because he was a ubiquitous
presence in 2008.
"This time, he's continuing a relationship he built four years ago,
which is different than some of these candidates who aren't as well
known to people," she said.
Romney's 2012 campaign in Iowa hasn't gone entirely smoothly. Several
of his former top staffers and backers in the state have gone to work
for other candidates or have opted to stay neutral in the race.
Doug Gross, a Des Moines attorney and Republican strategist who was
Romney's state chairman four years ago, told Yahoo News he decided
against backing Romney's 2012 campaign because of questions about his
former boss's authenticity.
"I was concerned about whether Mitt would be true to himself and not
try to be somebody he's not," said Gross, who has not endorsed a
candidate in the primary. "I didn't want to go through a cycle where I
was working for a candidate who wasn't comfortable in his own skin."
Romney has also come under intense questioning at town halls around
the state about his support for a Massachusetts health care law that
included an individual insurance mandate similar to what was passed in
"Obamacare"—an issue that his advisors worry could depress his support
on caucus night.
And while the Romney campaign talks up its "stealth" volunteer
campaign in Iowa, his advisers admit it's also their biggest liability
heading into Tuesday's vote.
"The greatest challenge is that it is a volunteer organization this
time around," Schulte told Yahoo News. "When you don't have as much
staff, you don't have as many people to make those turnout calls. … So
it's a little unpredictable."
Romney's reception in Davenport on Tuesday was a hopeful sign for the
campaign. Speaking to a crowd in an ornate ballroom at the historic
Hotel Blackhawk, Romney marveled at the sight of the crowd, which
spilled into the hotel's hallways and lobby. At one point, a Romney
spokeswoman estimated the crowd to be at least 800 people—about the
same size of some of Romney's largest events four years ago.
'The halls are full, the stairways are full … This is just amazing,"
Romney declared. "I don't know how you got here, but I appreciate it."
